When will the bull run start? Analytics from Grayscale
By Alex Panasenko 2250 20 Jul 2022
The cryptocurrency market got a bit of positivity after the encouraging recovery of Bitcoin and Ethereum to $22,000 and $1500, correspondingly. Is this the end of the crypto winter? The Grayscale Foundation presented its viewpoint.
Crypto has been in a bear market for many months now: prices are falling as well as holders’ investments melt away. But many investors are patiently waiting for bitcoin’s new bullish run to get at least a tenth of previous returns. That’s why big players’ predictions immediately appear on all the major social networks.
Grayscale analysts Matt Maximo and Michael Zhao prepared a 20-page report, “Bear Markets in Perspective”, with a legendary quote from Satoshi Nakamoto on the BitcoinTalk forum that he had started working on an electronic peer-to-peer money transfer system. Today the whole world knows this system as “bitcoin”, and the value of the first cryptocurrency has risen by 40,000,000% since then!
It should be said that the guys from Grayscale were not too original, basing their analysis on cycles. We also wrote about cycles, but with an emphasis on graphical evaluation. At the same time, GS noted periods between peaks and troughs and cases when bitcoin’s “realized price” fell below the market price, excluding March 2020, when there was extreme volatility amid the pandemic.
Any study of historical data is based on looking for patterns. In this case, such a pattern was the number of days in cycles. Bitcoin did not have many bull runs in its short biography, so, on the one hand, this periodicity is not difficult to analyze. On the other hand, there are also reasonable doubts as to the representativeness of this metric.
So, if we proceed from the idea that the cycle will have exactly the same characteristic this time, then, according to Grayscale, we have already been in the “favorable purchasing opportunities” stage for more than 20 days. And this stage will last another 250 days or so, after which it may finally happen what everyone has been waiting for (the bull run).
Well, the possibility of “accumulating satoshi” for another 5-6 months may well be good news.
Fund analysts are confident in the absolute prospects of the crypto industry. In their opinion, this industry can “revolutionize all aspects of digital life, from fintech to entertainment”.
Grayscale also believes that for 40 years of the Internet’s existence, it was bitcoin that first opened up the possibility for people to truly own digital assets without direct influence on their physical hardware storage and software.