Bill Gates and Vaclav Smil: A Century Without Innovation?

It was the book "Invention and Innovation: A Brief History of Hype and Failure" by Czech-Canadian scientist and political analyst Vaclav Smil that sparked such reflective thoughts in Bill Gates, the renowned billionaire and philanthropist. Smil contends that the 21st century might not be as forward-thinking as we assume, basing his argument on an in-depth analysis of various sectors within the modern economy. He observed “unmistakable signs of technical stagnation and slowing advances.”

In an age where artificial intelligence is rapidly developing and expanding, Smil's views might seem out of touch. Yet, he is also skeptical of AI's achievements, suggesting that Large Language Models (LLMs) developers have only managed “to deploy some fairly rudimentary analytical techniques to uncover patterns and pathways that are not so readily discernible by our senses.” According to Smil, AI's significant accomplishments are confined to tasks of relative simplicity.

Looking back over the last 150 years, Smil identifies the late 19th and early 20th centuries as the true heyday of innovation. It was a period marked by revolutionary inventions like the internal combustion engine, the electrification of cities, the telephone, groundbreaking strides in metallurgy, and the advent of electronics. It was also a time of critical advancements in medicine, agricultural technologies, and food production. These observations largely align with the perspective of the Microsoft co-founder.

Nevertheless, Gates considers Smil’s evaluation of AI's achievements as somewhat off the mark. He sees emerging signs of human-like cognition in AI, indicating that it is moving beyond simply generating programmed responses.

“AI is going to become smart, not just fast,” Gates confidently predicts. With this evolution, strict regulations will be vital to mitigate potential negative impacts of this technology.